Before we sort you...

This works best if you already have a product or clear offer, and at least three realistic markets to compare.

Choose candidate markets. Score honestly. No need to impress the Hat.

Which markets are fighting for your attention?

Pick three specific groups. "Healthcare" is broad. "Regional care providers using legacy scheduling tools" is useful.

Six questions the Hat cares about.

You'll score each market from 0 to 5 across six factors. When in doubt, score lower. You'll get a recommendation, not a prophecy.

After each market, rate your evidence

A

Verified. Repeatable, observed buyer or commercial proof.

B

Indicated. Direct but limited evidence.

C

Assumed. Hunch or indirect research.

18 ratings, 3 evidence checks and 5 deal-breaker questions. Most people need 5 to 8 minutes.

The Forbidden Forest.

A 90-point market can still be a terrible idea if you can't deliver, legally operate, reach the buyer or make the economics work.

Any Fail rules a market out for now, whatever its score. Unknown keeps it provisional.

How we scored your markets

No secret science. These are decision heuristics built by ICP-First™ GTM, published so you can disagree with them.

1. Weighted score per market

You rate each market 0–5 on six factors. Each rating is converted to points:

Factor	Weight	Points per rating step
Pain	25%	× 5 (max 25)
Urgency	20%	× 4 (max 20)
Willingness & ability to pay	15%	× 3 (max 15)
Right to win	20%	× 4 (max 20)
Reachability	10%	× 2 (max 10)
Repeatability	10%	× 2 (max 10)

Score = 25·Pain/5 + 20·Urgency/5 + 15·Pay/5 + 20·RightToWin/5 + 10·Reach/5 + 10·Repeat/5, on a 0–100 scale.

2. Deal-breakers come before scores

Eligible: All five gates pass.
Provisional: No gate fails, but at least one is Unknown.
Disqualified for now: Any gate fails. A disqualified market can never be recommended, however high it scores.

The Hat picks the highest-scoring eligible market. If none is eligible, it shows the best provisional market as a hypothesis to validate. If every market fails a gate, it refuses to choose.

3. Close calls and ties

If the runner-up with the same status is within 5 points, we call it a close call and recommend a head-to-head test. Exact ties are ordered by stronger evidence, then right to win, then urgency.

4. Evidence

You rate your evidence once per market: A verified, B indicated, C assumed. It is self-reported and shown as a confidence label next to the score. It does not change the score itself in this version. A high score with C evidence is routed to validation, not to scaling.

5. Tiers

85–100: The Chosen One. Strong candidate, still a hypothesis.
70–84: The Contender. Test it and prioritise validation.
55–69: The Explorer. Secondary or experimental.
0–54: Not Your House. Deprioritise.

These thresholds are rules of thumb for this tool, not scientifically established cut-offs.

Your answers and your privacy

The Sorting Hat runs in your browser. While you answer, your market names and ratings are kept in this browser tab so you can go back and forth. They are cleared when you close the tab or press "Start over".

Your first name and email come from the signup form you filled in before the quiz (run by Kit, ICP-First™ GTM's email provider). When you reach your verdict, we add your winning market, its score and status, and the ranking of your three markets to that same Kit record, so Douwe Wester can follow up on your result. Your individual ratings are not sent.

You can unsubscribe from any email, or ask us to delete your data, at any time.

If you book a conversation, only the route you landed on (for example "validate") is added to the booking link, never your answers or market names.

The full ICP-First™ GTM privacy policy will be linked here before public launch.

Stop guessing who to sell to.

Let the Sorting Hat find the market you're most likely to win.

How the Hat works

What the Hat measures

Pain 25%

Urgency 20%

Willingness & ability to pay 15%

Right to win 20%

Reachability 10%

Repeatability 10%

For B2B founders with more opportunities than focus.

Not magic. Method.

About

Three markets enter. One gets your focus.